Risk Management/Qualitative Risk Analysis
The Delphi Technique
The Delphi technique has been defined by Linstone and Turoff as: '...a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals as a whole to deal with a complex problem'. (Linstone, Harold A. and Murray Turoff (eds) (1975) - 'The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications' - Addison-Wesley, page 3)
It was originally developed as a technique for the US Department of Defense. The development occurred during the early part of the Cold War in the 1950s when the Rand Corporation was charged with finding a way to establish reliable consensus of opinion among a group of experts about potential Soviet military attacks.
Half a century later the technique is still widely used, but usually in much more peaceful endeavours. The underlying rationale continues to be 'to establish as objectively as possible a consensus on a complex problem, in circumstances where accurate information does not exist or is impossible to obtain economically, or inputs to conventional decision making for example by a committee meeting face to face are so subjective that they risk drowning out individuals' critical judgements' (British Council)
The approach tends to be a group of techniques rather than an individual procedure. Typically the approach will involve an expert panel; a number of information gathering rounds each of which ends with an analysis process and feedback into subsequent rounds. Individuals are given the opportunity to revise judgements as a result of feedback. The number of iterations can vary (the more rounds the closer the consensus is likely to be) as can the size of the panel - from a handful to several hundred participants. The process has the following features - anonymity (to a greater or lesser extent, depending on how the exercise is structured), iteration, controlled feedback and statistical aggregation of group response.
Examples of practical applications of the technique can be found at:
http://bid79.rarari.org.uk/community/The+Delphi+Process/277.aspx
http://www.henleymc.ac.uk/general/delphi.nsf/homepage
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