Shiny, New Technology
JISC Observatory
The JISC Observatory anticipates and responds to projected future trends and scenarios in the context of the use of technology in Higher and Further Education, and Research in the UK.
There is a lot of hype surrounding new technologies. Technology is undoubtedly getting better, faster and cheaper but, ever since the time when people debated the merits of Betamax over VHS, it has been difficult to know which technologies represent the way forward and which will be consigned to oblivion (or car boot sales) within six months.
The ability to understand where technology can play a key part in helping you achieve your strategic goals is nonetheless a key skill for institutional senior managers in the 21st century. This section gives a very brief overview of the technology lifecycle (both the hype and the reality) and points to some resources that can help with the strategic management and governance of your technology portfolio.
Finally we look at some experiences in institutions where technology has enabled significant change in the way certain core business functions are carried out or delivered significant benefits in learning, teaching, research and related activities.
Some often-cited Technology Predictions
'Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.'
Sir Alan Sugar, February 2005
'Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers of the future may have only 1000 vacuum tubes and weigh 1.5 tons.'
Popular Mechanics, March 1949
'TV won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.'
Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946
'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.'
Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
'This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.'
Western Union internal memo, 1876
'The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.'
Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer of the British Post Office, 1876
'Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?'
H M Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
'That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced.'
Scientific American, January 2, 1909
