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Tools & Techniques Scenario Planning - Tools

Timeline

Certainty matrix

This technique utilises a story-telling approach to help participants test scenario plausibility and by considering the timeline, and to get buy-in by addressing the question 'how could this happen?'.

Activity Plan

  • Participants are asked to identify the biggest differences between the current world and the future scenario (2-3 minutes)
  • Participants then explain the change, identifying 3-5 causes for each change (answering questions like 'why does the majority buy expensive ecological food?') (5-10 minutes)
  • Select the main causes from the group of causes (5-10 minutes)
  • Identify common causes and repeat the process of answering appropriate questions (5-10 minutes)
  • Draw a draft timeline (10 minutes)
  • Finish the timeline using colourful (tabloid) paper headlines (optional) with a short explanation (10 minutes)
  • An additional step could involve plotting the identified events onto a certainty matrix (the vertical axis running from 'certain to occur' down to 'uncertain to occur' and the horizontal range from low impact to high impact)

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